Platinum’s Breakout: Is Platinum the Next Major Precious Metals Rally?

Platinum has surged over 55% year-to-date, breaking out from a long-standing trading band below $1,100/oz to reach highs above $1,400/oz in mid-2025. This dramatic rise reflects a rare shift in market dynamics, raising questions about its sustainability.

The World Platinum Investment Council projects a structural deficit of 966,000 ounces in 2025—12% of global demand—marking the third consecutive annual shortfall. Mining output is expected to drop 4-6%, with Q1 production down 13% year-on-year, pushing 2025 output to a five-year low. Above-ground inventory is dwindling to just three months of demand.

Investment demand has exploded, particularly in China, where platinum jewelry fabrication jumped 26% year-on-year in Q1 as consumers pivot from gold. Automotive demand remains a wildcard, but supply inelasticity suggests even sharp price gains won’t quickly spur new production.